Pilot Outlook Demand - Understand

Civil Aviation Market Drivers

This section presents business and commercial aviation market drivers causing the demand for professional pilots. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing short-term instability, which significantly affects market drivers, but the long-term commercial aviation outlook remains strong.

The overall demand for civil aviation pilots is primarily driven by the number of flights and active fleet. Crewing these flights and replacing pilots leaving the workforce due to mandatory retirement and attrition are the underlying causes of pilot demand. In 2020, business and commercial aviation markets across the globe faced headwinds which resulted in lower demand for professional pilots.

Commercial Aviation

In 2020, commercial aviation will witness a sharp decrease of 66% in terms of revenue passenger kilometers (RPK).

The commercial aviation industry is facing unprecedented challenges, but this setback is temporary. Looking ahead, industry forecasts indicate a 75% rebound in 2021YoY, and subsequently a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the following four-year period (2021-2025). Despite the short-term negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term commercial aviation outlook is positive.

Business Aviation

Following a 27% drop in the number of cycles in 2020 YOY (Jan-Aug), business aviation markets have shown signs of improvement, notably in North America.

Forecasts indicate a 37% rebound in 2021 YOY, and subsequently a 4.7% CAGR over the following four-year period (2021-2025). This positive momentum is also present in Europe. After experiencing a drop of 28% in the number of cycles in 2020 YOY (Jan-Aug), forecasts indicate a 35% rebound in 2021 YOY, and subsequently a 5.5% CAGR over the following four-year period (2021-2025).

Several new large business jet platforms are expected to drive growth, including the Bombardier Global 7500, the Bombardier Global 5500/6500, and the Gulfstream G500/600. Furthermore, the Dassault Falcon 6X and Gulfstream G700 are preparing to enter service in 2022. Compared with small and medium platforms, the large jet segment is predicted to remain the fastest-growing segment in business aviation.

Demand to offset retirement and attrition

Today, pilots over 50 years of age represent 38% of the total civil aviation industry pilot pool.

The general aging of the pilot workforce presents a challenge for airlines and operators to solve. With the industry facing massive retirement numbers over the next ten years, the percentage of pilots over the age of 50 continues to increase versus the total civil aviation industry pilot pool. Currently, this pilot population age represents a disproportionally high rate. As experienced pilots retire, a chain reaction of new hires is triggered.

In commercial aviation, replacements consist mainly of age-based retirement, early retirement, and pilot attrition. Around 3.8% of commercial pilots are expected to retire or leave the profession every year over the next 10 years, creating a need for 126,000 new commercial aviation pilots over that same period.

In business aviation, replacements consist mainly of age-based retirement, attrition, and the movement of pilots from business to commercial aviation. Over the next decade, business aviation pilots are expected to join commercial airlines at a rate of 4.0% every year. In addition, 3.6% of pilots will leave due to both retirement and attrition. This translates into a need for 41,000 new business aviation pilots over the next 10 years.

Pilot-Age Distribution in 2020

Demand to support growth

11,000 additional business and commercial aircraft will join the active fleet in civil aviation over the next ten years.

While pilot demand stems from retirement, attrition, and movement to other sectors, there is a direct correlation between new pilot demand and fleet growth. As the industry follows the path to recovery, new aircraft will be added to business and commercial aviation fleets, requiring new pilots to fly the world fleet.

For commercial aircraft, the 10-year average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 2.5%, which is higher than the expected growth in business jet fleets. The active commercial fleet is expected to grow by 7,800 aircraft to reach 36,000 aircraft by 2029.

In business aviation, modest increases in fleet additions are anticipated. With a CAGR of 1.5%, the active business jet fleet is expected to grow by 3,600 aircraft over the next 10 years, bringing the fleet total to approximately 26,000 aircraft.

Overall, fleet growth is driving the need for 93,000 new airline pilots and 4,000 new business jet pilots over the next decade.

Commercial Aviation
36K Active Passenger Airliners in 2029

+93k

New pilots needed
for growth

Business Aviation
26K Active Business Jets in 2029

+4k

New pilots needed
for growth

The Impact of Covid-19

Border closures and lockdowns translated into sudden drops in flight numbers, revenues, and civil aviation pilot jobs around the globe.

Travel restrictions, health concerns, and a slump in demand among travelers caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 have significantly impacted the aviation industry, causing drastic drops in business aviation while forcing airlines to furlough or lay off employees.

By April 2020, in both business and commercial aviation segments, passenger traffic was a fraction of what it used to be, capacity declined significantly, and revenues dropped. After a steep decline, domestic markets began to lead the way in passenger demand as more countries began to loosen travel restrictions within their borders. Internationally, air travel showed signs of growth as restrictions in the Schengen Areas were lifted.

As indicated by the decrease in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) for commercial aviation and the decrease in cycles for business aviation, both of these markets have experienced significant decreases in revenues in 2020. Rising to the challenges of a crisis is nothing new to the aviation industry. Just as the industry has overcome past health epidemics, economic recessions, and other catastrophic events, it will overcome the COVID-19 crisis. Global border closures are forcing airlines to reduce operations abruptly. Therefore, this recovery is expected to be more gradual with turbulence along the journey. Of the two markets, business aviation is expected to be the first to return to 2019 levels of activity

Commercial market recovery

After a significant drop in early 2020, the industry expects revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) and the total number of passengers to return to 2019 levels between late 2023 and early 2024. The industry also expects a 3.0% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for RPK over the 10-year outlook period (2019-2029) and a 3.3% CAGR for the total number of passengers over the same period.

Business market recovery

For US operations, which represents most of the global business aviation activity, the industry expects the number of business jet cycles to return to 2019 levels by as early as mid-2021. However, European operations are expected to experience a slower recovery as compared to the US.

Impact on short-term pilot demand

While the demand for active pilots has decreased significantly during 2020, analysis shows that the active pilot population will return to 2019 levels in 2022.

Airlines and operators are pursuing recovery and taking short-term measures to offset the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted in a decrease in the number of active pilots in 2020. This however is temporary as active fleets return to service through 2021 and 2022 as expected by the industry. In addition, a significant number of age-based retirements and attrition will continue to reduce the available pilot pool. This will result in a global requirement for 27,000 new pilots by the end of 2021.